Tokyo Inflation Accelerates, Supporting Further BOJ Rate Hikes as Yen Strengthens

  • Tokyo’s core CPI rose 2.7% year on year in September, above the BOJ’s 2% target.
  • The dollar traded at 158.14–15 yen at 10 a.m., down 23 sen after the inflation data.
  • The BOJ’s September meeting summary pointed to another rate increase this year but gave limited timing guidance.

Tokyo’s core consumer price index, excluding fresh food, rose 2.7% year on year in September, accelerating from 1.8% in August and exceeding the 2.4% median market forecast. The reading put inflation above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time since January, while an index excluding fresh food and fuel rose 3.0% and service-sector inflation accelerated to 2.3%. The data add to pressure for further monetary tightening after the BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% in September. A summary of opinions from that meeting indicated that policymakers were increasingly focused on preventing inflation from overshooting the target and pointed to another rate increase this year, although it provided little clarity on timing. In Tokyo trading on the morning of the 2nd, the yen strengthened roughly 20 sen from the previous day’s 5 p.m. level, with the dollar at 158.14–15 yen at 10 a.m., down 23 sen, and the euro at 177.65–67 yen. The currency nevertheless remained vulnerable to wider US-Japan interest-rate differentials.

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