Gold rises above $4,200 after weak US jobs data cuts October rate-hike expectations

  • Gold rose above $4,200 after weak September US employment data reduced October Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations.
  • The economy added 29,000 jobs, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%.
  • Markets cut the implied probability of an October rate increase to below 15%, while December odds remained above 70%.

Gold climbed back above $4,200 an ounce after the September US employment report showed substantially weaker-than-expected hiring, a higher unemployment rate and slower wage growth. Payrolls increased by 29,000, below forecasts near 85,000-90,000, while August growth was revised to 133,000 from 162,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%, its weakest reading since May 2021. Money markets reduced the probability of an October Federal Reserve rate increase to less than 15%, from about 26%-27% before the report and roughly 70% a week earlier; expectations for a December increase remained above 70%. Before the release, stock futures were higher and markets assigned a 74% probability to the Fed holding rates at its October 28 meeting. Lower rate expectations supported non-yielding gold, while elevated Treasury yields, a strong dollar and Middle East tensions remained competing influences.

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