The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 in September 2026 from 53.0 in August, its lowest level in six months while remaining above the 50 threshold indicating expansion. Output growth slowed to 50.8 from 52.8, and new orders fell below 50 for the first time since March. New export orders declined for a fourth consecutive month amid weaker U.S. demand and heightened trade frictions. Customs delays, border difficulties, product shortages, elevated energy prices and the conflict in Iran strained supply chains, while AI-related demand added pressure. A U.S. import ban on many Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and dairy products took effect after talks involving President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney broke down in August. Delivery delays were the most widespread since August 2022, and manufacturers reduced inventories as purchasing stocks fell for the first time in six months. The input-cost index rose to 71.1 from 66.4, its highest level since July 2022, while the future output index fell to 54.6 from 58.7, its lowest level since December 2025.