McDonald’s shares head for eighth straight weekly loss as targets fall

  • McDonald’s shares are heading toward an eighth consecutive weekly decline.
  • Shares traded near $232 after falling roughly 24% since the year began.
  • McDonald’s NEXT program runs through 2036 and targets margin gains by 2030.

McDonald’s shares are on track for an eighth consecutive weekly decline, extending their longest losing streak since the dot-com collapse in the early 2000s. The stock touched a 52-week low of $232.05, versus a 52-week high of $341.75, and is down approximately 23% over 12 months, 24% since the start of the current calendar year, nearly 2% over five trading days and about 5% over five years. Weak comparable sales in the United States and Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski’s conservative outlook have weighed on the shares. Investors are also assessing the $8.5 billion NEXT franchisee assistance program, which runs through 2036, requires significant upfront spending and pushes margin objectives to 2030. The timing creates a trade-off between strengthening the restaurant network and generating near-term cash flow and profit growth. Several investment banks cut their targets after McDonald’s Investor Day: Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $297 while keeping an Equalweight rating; Bernstein SocGen Group retained Market Perform with a $295 objective; Baird reduced its target to $250 and kept a Neutral rating; BTIG cut its target to $295 while retaining Buy; and RBC Capital lowered its target to $285 while maintaining Sector Perform. Analysts cited capital requirements, short-term profitability pressure, consumer spending headwinds, execution uncertainty, revenue challenges and the company’s expansion plans. Some valuation methods suggest the stock may be below intrinsic value, potentially drawing longer-term value investors. Thirteen analysts have reduced earnings projections, while McDonald’s continues to receive a GOOD financial health rating from multiple analytical frameworks. The company’s market capitalization is approximately $164 billion. Investors will monitor U.S. same-store sales, NEXT-related cash spending and evidence that the program can deliver the planned 2030 margin improvement.

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