Bitcoin briefly rose above $87,000 after a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report, but later traded near $85,990 as markets reassessed Federal Reserve policy expectations. Kalshi pricing as of October 2, 2026, showed an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve would leave rates unchanged at its October meeting, compared with 16% odds of a 25-basis-point increase and about 1% odds of a larger hike. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, below the 84,000 consensus forecast, while unemployment rose to 4.2% and annual wage growth slowed to its lowest rate since May 2021. The data reduced expectations for near-term monetary tightening and lifted equity markets, but Bitcoin's initial move to about $87,200 failed to hold. Bitcoin remained up about 2% over 24 hours and more than 2% for the week in the older market snapshot. Traders continued to monitor ETF flows, Treasury yields, labor-market data and the October 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the rate decision and press conference scheduled for October 28.