Bitcoin’s win rate versus S&P 500 rebounds above 50% after June low

  • Bitcoin’s share of trading days outperforming the S&P 500 rose above 50%.
  • Glassnode placed the June reading near 20%, the lowest level in six years.
  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded multiple strong net-inflow days during September.

Bitcoin is regaining relative strength against U.S. stocks, with Glassnode saying its share of trading days outperforming the S&P 500 has climbed back above 50% after falling to around 20% in June, the lowest level in six years. The June figure measures daily returns during that month, while an existing three-month session measure reached 37.8% in mid-August, also described as a six-year low. Bitcoin later gained roughly 7% in September as the S&P 500 moved between 0% and 0.3%, while gold fell more than 6%. Since mid-August, Bitcoin’s market capitalization rose approximately 36%, compared with a 0.8% gain for the S&P 500, and it outperformed the index for three consecutive weeks in September. Santiment said Bitcoin’s 260-day correlation with the S&P 500 was at its lowest level since 2015. Smaller holders returned after selling in mid-August, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded multiple strong net-inflow days in September. With stocks moving sideways during Bitcoin’s recovery, the latest data suggest asset-specific buying rather than a broad risk-asset rally. Investors will watch whether Bitcoin’s win rate stays above 50% and whether its historically low stock correlation persists.

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