About 69.2% of 2.9 million retail Polymarket accounts finished below break-even, collectively losing $338.9 million, Galaxy Research found. The study used Polymarket's full on-chain settlement record curated by oracle network Stork and covered the international platform, not its separate US app. Galaxy excluded 125,429 likely automated accounts using a cutoff of 50 orders per active day, while acknowledging that the threshold was a judgment call. Those accounts placed 80.8% of orders and earned $246.8 million. Among the remaining retail wallets, the median loss was about $3 and the bottom 1% lost at least $4,804. Some 15.2% of accounts did not trade again within 30 days of a loss, compared with 6.1% after a win, though Galaxy said wallet-level data cannot determine whether traders moved to new addresses. Sports specialists represented 47% of specialist traders and had the lowest profitability rate, at 25.1%, versus 41.2% for technology and science specialists and 30.4% for generalists. Galaxy said the findings do not weaken the case for prediction markets as forecasting tools, arguing that informed traders require less-informed trading flow.