Bitcoin is trading near $84,000 after briefly topping $86,000, with Kalshi traders forecasting a $91,000 October level and assigning a 52% chance of exceeding it. Bitcoin has historically gained more than 18% on average in October and posted positive returns in 10 of 13 years, a pattern traders call "Uptober." The cryptocurrency rose to a record $126,296 in October 2025 before falling 3.69% that month and entering a record liquidation cascade (forced position closures caused by falling collateral). Traders see a move above $87,500 as the most likely October outcome, with 72% odds, while the chances of exceeding $90,000 stand at 56% and reaching $100,000 at 9%. Kalshi traders put the odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before year-end at 37%, while the probability of a positive annual return is 46%, up 20 percentage points over the past month. Bitcoin is down 3.8% year-to-date, and only Chainlink, Stellar Lumens and Ethereum have higher odds of ending the year with gains. The analysis also notes that Treasury yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar could weigh on near-term demand. Kalshi is subject to oversight by the CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator).