Polymarket traders assign Bitcoin a 64% chance of reaching $90,000 at any point in October and a 45% chance of falling to $80,000. The probabilities come from market contracts tied to whether Bitcoin reaches specified price levels, so they represent market-implied estimates rather than guaranteed outcomes. The updated $90,000 probability is above the previously recorded 59.5% estimate and the earlier 56% reading for exceeding the threshold during the month. Optimism is also supported by $102.7 million in net inflows into US spot products.