Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 48% to 45% in a simulated runoff, according to Datafolha, a margin within the poll’s 2-percentage-point error range. Lula leads the first-round scenario 42% to 38% ahead of the Oct. 4 vote, when a candidate needs more than 50% of valid ballots to avoid an Oct. 25 runoff. The contest pits Lula’s state-led development and welfare agenda against Bolsonaro’s campaign for conservative social policies, tax cuts and tougher crime enforcement. It also carries implications for Brazil’s relations with the U.S. and China, Amazon protections and fossil-fuel development. Donald Trump has followed the race closely after his administration imposed additional 25% tariffs on some Brazilian goods and previously targeted Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the prosecution of Flávio Bolsonaro’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.