Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to 98% of pre-war levels for the first time since Donald Trump attacked Iran eight months ago, but Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel. Goldman Sachs estimates that 23.3 million barrels a day left the region, supported by higher shipments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and by alternative routes that reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. The bank expects Brent to moderate to $85 by year-end and $80 in 2027, although traders and analysts remain concerned about escalation, depleted strategic reserves, high tanker costs and the possibility of renewed disruption. Gulf oil exports now bypass the Strait more often, while Middle Eastern diesel and gasoline exports remain at only 58% of pre-war levels. Brent rose 4.7% to $102 on Thursday, while spot-market oil cost $120, reflecting a market where physical supply constraints and geopolitical risk remain significant. Britain faces the prospect of winter energy bills reaching £2,000, with Andy Burnham warning of an energy crisis and saying the conflict requires continued attention.