Middle East oil flows recover, but Hormuz risks drive freight costs

Oct 2, 2026 08:45 (22d ago)

Middle East oil flows recovered toward pre-war levels through pipeline rerouting, U.S.-supported shipping and ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Kpler measured flows at 92% of the pre-war baseline in the final week of September, while PVM estimated September exports at 12.8 million barrels per day, or 80%.
Hormuz-area attacks, tanker shortages and very large crude carrier rates of $1 million to $1.27 million per day kept freight and supply risks elevated.

Middle East oil exports recovered substantially toward pre-war levels, but estimates differed by methodology and period: Kpler reported flows at 92% of the pre-war baseline in the final week of September, while PVM Oil Associates estimated September exports at 12.8 million barrels per day, or 80% of pre-war levels. Pipeline rerouting, U.S.-supported vessel movements and ship-to-ship transfers near Oman and the UAE offset the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but attacks, constrained tanker availability and higher insurance and chartering costs continued to pressure oil markets. About 40% of September regional exports bypassed the strait, compared with 17% before the war, while Iranian exports fell almost to zero after a U.S. naval blockade was reimposed in July.