U.S. Treasury yields have climbed sharply over the past month, with the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) and 30-year Treasury (^TYX) reaching levels last seen in 2002 and exceeding 2007 peaks recorded before the financial crisis. Investors have cited the artificial intelligence build-out, competition for capital and shifting foreign preferences between gold and fixed income. Macquarie’s Thierry Wizman argues that uncertainty surrounding the duration and future course of the Iran war is another source of pressure. The conflict may keep long-term inflation expectations elevated through energy supply disruptions, while military spending could widen the U.S. budget deficit and increase government borrowing. Brent crude futures moved back above $100 a barrel on Thursday. Wizman says investors are focused on the November 3 midterm elections because the conflict’s direction and its implications for government spending could become clearer afterward, although President Trump has described both a potential end to the war and a renewed bombing campaign.