Markets cut October rate-hike odds to 17% after weak September jobs report

Oct 2, 2026 13:10 (22d ago)

Markets reduced expectations for an October rate hike after the September jobs report.
17% is the new market-implied probability, down from nearly 75% days earlier.
Bond-market volatility intensified following the weaker-than-expected employment data.

Market expectations for an October rate hike dropped to 17% after the September jobs report came in weaker than expected. The probability had been close to 75% just days earlier, marking a sharp shift in interest-rate outlooks amid unusually volatile bond-market trading.