Americans remain pessimistic about the economy six years after the COVID-19 pandemic, despite resilient consumer spending and broader economic activity. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has fluctuated without returning to pre-pandemic levels, while the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index also fell in September. Historically viewed as a leading indicator because confidence was expected to influence spending, sentiment has become less predictive, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said. Economists and policymakers are therefore placing more weight on objective data such as inflation, spending, hiring and economic growth. The personal consumption expenditures price index showed price increases stabilizing, while August consumer spending rose 0.9% from July and inflation-adjusted spending increased 0.6%, the strongest monthly gain since March 2025. Bank of America said discretionary spending on goods and services was increasing. September payroll growth slowed and wages failed to keep pace with inflation, but economists described the labor market as low-hire, low-fire rather than characterized by widespread layoffs. Researchers said survey distributions and components such as inflation expectations may provide more useful signals than headline sentiment readings, while Goolsbee called for further research comparing survey-based measures with market signals such as Treasury yields.