Uranium supply could fall 46,000 tons short of demand by 2040

  • AI-driven nuclear expansion is increasing uranium demand while IAEA and NEA warn mining and enrichment require sustained investment.
  • The Oregon Group estimates an annual uranium supply shortfall of about 46,000 tons by 2040.
  • Russia supplies 44% of global enriched uranium, while South Korea imports all of its enriched uranium and is adding reactors.

Growing electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centers is accelerating nuclear power construction worldwide, raising concerns that uranium mining and enrichment capacity may not keep pace. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) said in the 31st edition of their Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand report that identified reserves could cover maximum demand through 2050, but only with sustained investment in mining and enrichment. Global reactor capacity is projected to rise from 378 gigawatts across 418 operating reactors as of January 1 last year to 641–1,045 GW by 2050, lifting annual uranium demand from about 64,500 tons to 84,800–143,900 tons. The Oregon Group estimates a potential annual supply gap of about 46,000 tons by 2040. Russia’s role is another concern: the Centre for Strategic Advantage says Russia accounted for 25% of global uranium mining in 2024 and could reach 36% by 2040, while Rosatom supplies 44% of global enriched uranium. South Korea imports all of its enriched uranium under the Korea-U.S. Atomic Energy Agreement, and new reactors could increase pressure on its procurement system despite existing stockpiles, supply contracts and efforts to diversify imports.

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