Jim Cramer warns third-quarter earnings season could be rockier

  • Jim Cramer warned investors that third-quarter earnings season could be more difficult.
  • JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs report September-quarter results on October 14.
  • FactSet said S&P 500 third-quarter earnings estimates rose 1.4% during the quarter.

Jim Cramer warned that the third-quarter earnings season may deliver weaker results than investors have become accustomed to as rising borrowing costs and the Federal Reserve's inflation fight create a tougher backdrop. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs are scheduled to report September-quarter results on October 14, beginning the main test of corporate profits under higher rates. Cramer said stock-market gains remain possible but are harder to achieve. The caution follows a September 16 rate increase that took the Federal Reserve's interest rate to 4%, its first hike since 2023. Stocks gained Friday after employers added 29,000 jobs in September, below forecasts, while unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August; Bitcoin and gold initially climbed, and oil prices fell. Despite the concerns, FactSet's John Butters said analysts raised S&P 500 third-quarter earnings estimates by 1.4% during the quarter, compared with an average 2.2% decline over the past five years. The index is now expected to report 29.5% year-over-year earnings growth, up from 26.7% on June 30, while 72 of 116 companies issuing guidance gave positive outlooks. New York Fed President John Williams is also due to speak Tuesday after saying on September 29 that the Fed did not need to rush another hike, though one more could suit late this year.

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