Middle East oil exports recover to 80% as freight costs surge

  • Middle East oil exports recovered toward pre-war levels, according to PVM Oil Associates.
  • Exports averaged 12.8 million barrels per day in September, reaching an estimated 80% recovery.
  • IMO verified 80 Hormuz-area merchant-vessel attacks since Feb. 28, with at least 22 deaths.

Middle East oil exports have recovered to an estimated 80% of pre-war levels, reaching about 12.8 million barrels per day in September, according to PVM Oil Associates, part of TP ICAP Group. Saudi exports rose to roughly 6 million barrels per day, while Iraq’s production increased to 3.5 million barrels per day in August as southern-terminal exports improved. The recovery has depended increasingly on ship-to-ship transfers (moving cargo between vessels), including transfers off Sohar in Oman and Fujairah in the UAE, outside the Strait of Hormuz. About 2.5 million barrels per day were expected to use such transfers in September, up from 1.4 million in August. The arrangement requires additional vessels and raises insurance and chartering costs. The International Maritime Organization has verified 80 attacks on merchant vessels around Hormuz since the conflict began on Feb. 28, causing at least 22 seafarer deaths. Very large crude carrier charter rates for voyages originating inside the Gulf and transiting Hormuz reached records of $1 million to $1.27 million per day, based on LSEG data cited in the report. Freight pressure has spread to container shipping, with spot rates from the Far East to northern Europe rising 85% since the Iran war began to an average of $4,100. Global floating oil storage declined from 145 million barrels in April to around 88 million, as vessels became more valuable for transporting cargo. The export recovery has therefore done little to ease concerns about constrained shipping capacity and elevated transport costs.

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