Scope Ratings maintained the United States at AA- with a stable outlook, but warned that rising Treasury yields and persistent fiscal pressures are exposing the country to shifts in investor sentiment and financing conditions. The rating is three notches below the top grade and two steps below the AA+ ratings assigned by Moody’s, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings. Scope cited the U.S. economy, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, strong institutions including the Federal Reserve, and the depth and liquidity of its capital markets as credit strengths. It nevertheless expects structural spending pressures and limited political support for fiscal reform to worsen deficits. Primary deficits are projected to remain around 3.5% of GDP, while higher interest costs drive further deterioration. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.27%, above Congressional Budget Office forecasts of 4.3% for 2028-2031 and 4.4% for 2032-2036, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that yields staying about 1 percentage point above CBO projections would add roughly $3.5 trillion to debt over the next decade. Scope said general government debt could approach 160% of GDP by 2036 without stronger growth or substantial fiscal adjustment. It also warned that the $41.1 trillion debt ceiling could be reached by early 2027, creating risks of renewed political standoffs and market volatility. CRFB said fiscal 2026 ended with a $2 trillion deficit, publicly held debt of $32.3 trillion and record interest costs of $1.1 trillion.