AI and automation could cut demand for 36 million U.S. jobs by 2035

  • McKinsey forecasts AI and automation will reduce demand for 36 million U.S. jobs by 2035.
  • 41 million jobs are expected to emerge elsewhere, according to the McKinsey Global Institute.
  • About 11 million workers may need to leave their occupations entirely in the base case.

AI and automation are expected to reduce demand for about 36 million U.S. jobs by 2035, while growth in other sectors creates about 41 million positions, according to a new McKinsey Global Institute report. The central challenge is moving workers into those roles rather than a shortage of jobs. In the report’s base case, about 11 million workers, or roughly 7% of the workforce, would need to leave their occupations entirely, with estimates ranging from 6 million to 16 million. About 770,000 workers a year would need to make such career changes, around 3.6 times the historical average and close to McKinsey’s 2023 forecast of 12 million career switches by 2030. The shrinking occupations are concentrated in office and administrative support, retail and transportation, while healthcare, construction and management are expected to expand. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times as likely as higher-wage workers to need a new occupation. Only one in seven displaced workers has a direct path into a growing job requiring little retraining and offering at least comparable pay, while nearly half face an unpaved path because of skill gaps or credential requirements. About 85% of growing jobs require a credential, and 76% cannot be performed remotely. Richard Florida said past shifts from agriculture and manufacturing show that displaced service work could evolve into higher-paying wellness roles, while employers increasingly seek people who can build businesses and work with customers and colleagues. Geography will also matter as workers move toward opportunities and cities use universities as talent anchors. Ken Griffin committed $3 billion to Carnegie Mellon University on Sept. 30, including $2 billion for a Miami campus expected to enroll its first students in 2028, while Vanderbilt is developing a graduate campus in West Palm Beach focused on business, AI and data science.

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