Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are competing in a closely watched Oct. 4 election featuring 12 presidential candidates, with a runoff on Oct. 25 if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes. The result could return the Bolsonaro movement to national power or extend Lula’s left-leaning government, affecting Brazil’s democratic institutions, economy, climate policy, foreign relations and crypto regulation. A Lula victory would likely mean tighter crypto-sector supervision, stronger compliance requirements and renewed efforts to tax stablecoin transactions. During Lula’s tenure, the Central Bank issued resolutions increasing oversight of crypto exchanges, while authorities targeted criminal gangs and cartels using crypto assets. Flávio Bolsonaro has not publicly outlined a crypto policy, although reports say he defended two former associates of Glaidson Acácio dos Santos, the so-called Bitcoin Pharaoh, whose alleged crypto investment pyramid scheme moved $7 billion and affected more than 100,000 customers. Traditional polls show a close contest, while Polymarket assigned Bolsonaro a 59% winning probability and Lula 41% in a market with more than $163 million in volume; Brazil’s central bank has banned prediction markets under Resolution No. 5,298.