Iran's rial hits record low as security chief warns of deepening economic crisis

  • Iran’s rial fell beyond 2.5 million per dollar as sanctions, a naval blockade and reduced oil revenue intensified the economic crisis.
  • Kpler estimated that 90 million barrels remained aboard tankers before the United States reimposed its blockade in mid-July.
  • Security chief Mohsen Rezaei called the economy’s condition one of Iran’s most difficult periods, while President Masoud Pezeshkian offered no details on a new government posture.

Iran’s rial has fallen to a record low of more than 2.5 million per U.S. dollar as tighter sanctions, a naval blockade and sharply reduced access to oil revenue deepen the country’s economic crisis. Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s top security official, said the economy was facing one of its most difficult periods after more than seven months of war, while President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged worsening conditions and said the government had adopted a new posture without explaining it. The rial was about 1.5 million per dollar at the start of the year, around 920,000 in August 2025 and 35,000 in 2018; its decline from August represents about 170%. Inflation, previously reported above 70%, is now near 90%, GDP is expected to contract 5.4% this year, and rising import costs, fuel shortages, job resignations and pension protests are worsening living conditions. Kpler said Iran did not load oil at its export terminals last month for the first time since the 1979 Islamic revolution, while another recent data point showed Middle Eastern oil shipments had nearly returned to prewar levels, underscoring conflicting assessments of current flows. Oil already aboard tankers before the United States reimposed its blockade in mid-July was estimated at 90 million barrels and could run out by the middle of this month, although payments for deliveries, mainly to China, may continue through December. State banks have announced sales of up to $2 billion to support the rial, but tighter sanctions are restricting access to funds in China and making shadow-finance channels harder to use. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington have stalled as damage to energy infrastructure, reduced refining and natural-gas export capacity, higher oil prices and threats to shipping continue to weigh on the outlook.

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