Flávio Bolsonaro led President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential first round, forcing an October 25 runoff after neither candidate won an outright majority. Reuters reported Bolsonaro won 47% of votes cast, against about 45% for Lula, reversing polls that had put the incumbent ahead. Overseas Brazilian assets rose before domestic markets reopened, with the Frankfurt-listed MSCI Brazil ETF gaining more than 16% and Brazil's 2056 bond rising 1.4 cents to 93.5 cents on the dollar. Analysts expect the real, equities and local interest rates to respond positively to Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected showing, while cautioning that fiscal policy, the runoff campaign and eventual policy execution remain decisive.