Persian Gulf crude exports rose above 14 million barrels per day, rebounding more than 210% from the approximately 4.5 million-barrel-per-day low recorded after the war began on February 28. Bloomberg data shared by The Kobeissi Letter showed the four-week average nearing 14 million barrels per day, while Kpler put the seven-day average through the Strait of Hormuz at 13.5 million barrels per day in late September, matching prewar levels. Broader Middle East shipments, including Red Sea routes, averaged 19.5 million barrels per day, above the earlier benchmark of about 17 million. The recovery followed the reopening of shipping lanes, a U.S.-established southern security corridor along Oman’s coast, mine-clearing efforts and greater use of pipelines and offshore tanker transfers. Saudi Arabia resumed shipments through its East-West pipeline to Yanbu, while cargoes also moved through ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar and Fujairah. Despite the crude recovery, regional diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel exports remain at only 50% to 58% of 2025 levels because refinery damage and transport disruptions continue to constrain supplies. Earlier estimates from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Kpler placed Middle East or Persian Gulf exports between about 16.5 million and 19 million barrels per day, reflecting different coverage and measurement periods. Shipping risks, insurance costs, sanctions and the potential for renewed attacks continue to prevent a full normalization of the market.