Democrats gain in midterm forecasts as Latino voters favor party on congressional control

Oct 4, 2026 16:32 (18d ago)

Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning the House and a 54% chance of taking the Senate.
DDHQ simulations average 234 Democratic House seats and 51 Democratic Senate seats, with Democrats favored to control both chambers 52% to 23%.
Latino voters preferred Democratic control of Congress 59% to 35%, while Trump received 27% approval in a reported NBC/Telemundo survey.

With 30 days remaining before Election Day, Democrats have strengthened their position in the midterm elections, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecasts and recent polling. DDHQ gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning the House and a 54% chance of taking the Senate, up from 67% and 49%, respectively, one month earlier. Its simulations produce an average of 234 Democratic House seats and 51 Democratic Senate seats, with Democrats holding a 52% chance of controlling both chambers versus 23% for Republicans. Polls also show Latino voters preferring Democratic control of Congress by 59% to 35%, while President Donald Trump's approval among Latino voters was reported at 27%.