Democrats hold leads over Republicans in Texas, Ohio and Alaska, according to a new round of New York Times/Siena surveys that adds to evidence of improving Democratic prospects in the Senate. Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47 after winning back the chamber in 2024 by flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana. The Cook Political Report rates the Senate contest a "true toss up" and shifted three races toward Democrats in the past week. Democrats have also gained ground in the House: a Sept. 15 New York Times/Siena poll found 51% of respondents favored the Democratic congressional candidate in their district, compared with 43% for the Republican and 6% who were undecided or declined to answer. Silver Bulletin's polling average showed Democrats ahead by 8.9 points, 50% to 41.1%, as of Friday, up from a 6.7-point lead, 48.3% to 41.6%, on Sept. 1. Kalshi odds put the Democrats' chance of winning the House at 91.6% as of Thursday. President Trump's approval rating stood at 37% in the Silver Bulletin average, amid surveys showing record-low readings and voter fatigue with the Iran war and its economic effects. Midterm elections (congressional elections between presidential contests) often challenge the president's party because turnout is lower and voters may use the vote to judge the administration's agenda. A Democratic takeover of one or both chambers could constrain Trump's agenda, although he has bypassed Congress on measures including mass immigration raids, the Iran war and reconstruction of the Capitol and surrounding areas. Democrats are preparing investigations into Trump if they regain control of either chamber, including probes into whether he used the presidency for personal enrichment.