More than 69% of 2.9 million human-paced Polymarket accounts finished below break-even, recording aggregate losses of $338.9 million, according to a Galaxy Research study. The analysis used Polymarket’s full on-chain history, including positions, entry prices, holding periods and payouts. Galaxy excluded 125,429 accounts that averaged more than 50 orders per active trading day because they were considered likely automated. Those accounts represented 4.1% of wallets but generated 80.8% of all orders. Among the remaining accounts, the median retail account lost about $3, indicating that most losses were small while a smaller group lost thousands. Losing traders were also less likely to return: 15.2% did not trade again within 30 days after a loss, compared with 6.1% after a win. Traders in both groups generally returned with slightly smaller positions, although winners reduced risk less. About 44% of traders concentrated more than 60% of their activity on one topic, but specialists were slightly less profitable than generalists, with profitability rates of 28% and 30.4%, respectively. Sports specialists formed the largest specialist group and had the lowest profitability rate, while 41.2% of tech and science specialists finished profitably. Galaxy said the stronger performance could reflect subject knowledge, although the data cannot establish the reason. Profitable traders generally made larger and more frequent bets, while holding time showed no clear relationship with profitability. The research covered Polymarket’s international platform rather than its separate US exchange and tracked wallet addresses, not individuals, meaning one trader using multiple wallets could appear as several accounts. The findings come as prediction markets face increasing legal scrutiny. Baltimore sued Polymarket and Kalshi in August, alleging that both offered sports bets without Maryland-required licenses. New York sued Polymarket’s US arm in September over alleged unlicensed gambling and claims that users aged 18 to 20 could trade despite the state’s 21-year minimum age for mobile sports betting. In South Korea, police opened cases against 26 Polymarket users and referred 18 to prosecutors over about $12.7 million in bets while examining whether the activity constitutes illegal gambling under Korean law.