U.S. 10-year yield reaches 24-year high as S&P 500 nears record

  • The 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields reached 5.34% and 5.70%, respectively, while the S&P 500 gained 50 points.
  • The ISM services prices-paid index reached 74.0, its highest reading since July 2022, underscoring persistent inflation pressure.
  • Markets priced a 25% chance of an October Federal Reserve increase and one 25-basis-point December increase as the S&P 500 moved within 0.5% of a record.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34% and the 30-year yield 5.70%, their highest levels since 2002, while the S&P 500 gained another 50 points and moved within 0.5% of a record high. Resilient economic growth, artificial intelligence-related investment and persistent inflation pressures contributed to the government-bond selloff, which followed a 0.85-percentage-point third-quarter increase in the 10-year yield, the largest quarterly rise since the first quarter of 1994. The Institute for Supply Management's services prices-paid index reached 74.0, its highest reading since July 2022. Markets priced about a 25% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase in October and fully priced one 25-basis-point increase by December. The simultaneous rise in yields and equities has raised questions about market resilience, while higher borrowing costs, increased Treasury supply and reduced demand from traditional foreign investors have renewed fiscal concerns.

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