Gulf oil recovery faces renewed Hormuz attacks as executives warn of lasting strain

  • Middle Eastern oil exports recovered to at least 16.5 million barrels a day before renewed attacks threatened the Strait of Hormuz recovery.
  • Amin Nasser said rebuilding global crude and refined-fuel inventories could take up to two years, while shuttle operations cost producers $30 million to $40 million per run excluding insurance.
  • Gulf shipments were estimated to have fallen by 2 million to 3 million barrels a day after reported attacks, while Brent closed at $102.25 a barrel on the 2nd.

Middle Eastern oil exports recovered sharply after disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, but renewed attacks on vessels are threatening the recovery as global inventories remain depleted. Exports excluding Iran averaged at least 16.5 million barrels a day from the 1st through the 28th of last month, or about 87% of the nearly 19 million barrels a day shipped before the war began in February. Saudi Arabia’s exports rose to 6.9 million barrels a day in September from 2.45 million barrels a day in August, supported by U.S. Navy escorts, preemptive strikes that disabled Iranian data and communications facilities, and shuttle operations. Saudi Aramco President and Chief Executive Amin Nasser said rebuilding crude and refined-fuel inventories could take up to two years even if the strait fully reopens, while BP Chief Executive Officer Meg O’Neill said BP had shifted refinery operations toward diesel. Renewed attacks, including warnings from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, may have reduced shipments by 2 million to 3 million barrels a day. Brent crude closed at $102.25 a barrel on the 2nd, up about 5% for the week, and Capital Economics expects it to remain around $100 through year-end.

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