Bessent says Iran conflict’s end will lower inflation and bond yields

  • Scott Bessent says the Iran conflict’s end will reduce inflation, energy prices and bond yields.
  • 3.5% headline inflation contrasts with Bessent’s estimate of 2.3% core inflation.
  • Federal Reserve officials identify economic strength as a major driver of long-term yields.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the economy is accelerating and that inflation, energy prices, mortgage rates and long-term bond yields will decline once the conflict in Iran ends. He said headline inflation is about 3.5%, while core inflation is about 2.3%, and argued that median wage growth is keeping pace with headline inflation. Bessent also said private-sector employers have created 1 million jobs this year while government employment has fallen by 300,000. Economists Gregory Daco of EY and Joe Brusuelas of RSM dispute the strength of the wage picture, pointing to slower earnings growth, falling real wages and pressure on consumer spending. Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, have emphasized that economic strength—not only energy-driven inflation—is lifting long-term Treasury yields. Their views suggest that even if the Iran conflict ends and oil prices fall, yields could decline only partially and remain elevated.

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