September U.S. Inflation Rebounds Ahead of Midterms, Raising Fed Rate-Hike Risk

  • U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September.
  • Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September and 34.2% from a year earlier.
  • The Federal Reserve meets October 27-28, six days before the November 3 election.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% in September from August and 3.7% from a year earlier, accelerating from August’s 3.4% annual increase. Core inflation rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, exceeding Dow Jones estimates of 2.5%. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% in September and 34.2% from a year earlier, accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase. The Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting comes six days before the November 3 midterm elections, and the renewed price pressures have made another rate increase harder to rule out, although CME FedWatch still showed roughly 66% odds of an October hold and about 63% odds of a 0.25 percentage-point December hike. The Beige Book recorded rising concern about fuel costs and weaker hiring, while a Reuters-Ipsos survey found 78% of respondents blamed President Donald Trump’s policies for rising living costs. The October CPI is scheduled for November 10, after the election; the report describes it as the last monthly report voters will receive before casting ballots, creating a timing discrepancy with the stated release date.

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