Kalshi CEO warns tighter state oversight could force prediction markets offshore

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  • Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said state restrictions could push federally regulated prediction markets offshore.
  • New Jersey sought U.S. Supreme Court review after federal appellate courts split over state authority and sports-related event contracts.
  • Mansour denied inflated Bitcoin and Ether perpetual-futures volumes, while sports contracts comprised about 95% of Kalshi revenue in 2025 and roughly two-thirds by mid-2026.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said he feels "pretty good" about the company's pending legal fight but warned that tighter state oversight could push prediction-market activity offshore. Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission argue that sports-related event contracts are federally regulated financial products, while states contend they constitute illegal sports wagering under state gambling laws. Conflicting federal appellate rulings have prompted New Jersey to seek U.S. Supreme Court review. Mansour also rejected claims that sports contracts lack economic significance and denied allegations that Kalshi inflated Bitcoin and Ether perpetual-futures volumes, attributing reported patterns to fixed-size market-maker orders.

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