MSCI tightens rules that could threaten Strategy's index status

  • MSCI revised index rules and subjected Bitcoin treasury companies to closer eligibility scrutiny.
  • Strategy remains in MSCI indexes after the October 15 rule revision.
  • JPMorgan estimated Strategy’s removal could prompt $2.8 billion in passive selling.

MSCI revised its Global Investable Market Index eligibility rules on October 15, tightening how it identifies non-operating companies and placing Bitcoin treasury firms such as Strategy under closer scrutiny. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, has not been removed from the indexes. MSCI said companies will be assessed using their operating and financial characteristics, noting that digital-asset holders may still conduct genuine business activities. Existing constituents also receive a buffer, leaving the consequences to be determined in the November index review. The potential removal has raised concerns about passive selling: JPMorgan analysts previously estimated that excluding Strategy could prompt about $2.8 billion in sales by index-tracking funds, rising to roughly $8.8 billion if other providers adopt similar rules. Strategy says MSCI-tracking funds hold about 13 million MSTR shares, or 3.1% of basic shares outstanding, which it considers less than one day of average trading volume. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the risk is already reflected in the stock, citing price targets of $240 from Citigroup, $175 from Barclays and $195 from B. Riley, alongside a roughly 1.0 market-cap-to-Bitcoin-NAV ratio, STRC trading near par and a $3.75 billion dividend reserve. Strategy co-founder and former CEO Michael Saylor has dismissed the index issue as relatively unimportant. MSTR fell from above $151 to below $137 at Friday's close. Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 848,250 BTC after its October 12 purchase.

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