Global coal supply is struggling to match rising Asian demand as production constraints, transport disruptions and higher natural gas prices tighten the market. Benchmark Australian Newcastle thermal coal has risen 40% this year to around $150 per metric ton, its highest level in two years. Bank of America expects prices to remain supported through winter as elevated gas costs encourage power producers to switch to coal, particularly across Asia. Asian JKM liquefied natural gas prices have exceeded $30 per million British thermal units, while European TTF prices have risen above €90 per megawatt-hour this month amid tighter supplies linked to the Middle East conflict. At those gas prices, Newcastle coal could rise above $350 per ton before losing its cost advantage over gas, according to the bank. South Korea has led recent demand growth, alongside Vietnam and Pakistan, while tighter mine oversight and weaker production are limiting supply growth in China and India. Indian power-plant coal inventories have fallen more than 60% from their March peak, and Bank of America expects restocking in both countries to support imports. Indonesia has reduced production and faced drought-related transport disruptions, while Russian exports remain constrained by financial and logistical problems, with vessel attacks effectively halting shipments from Azov and Black Sea ports. Higher shipments from Australia, the U.S., South Africa and Colombia have partly offset the shortfalls, but limited spare export capacity leaves the market vulnerable to further disruptions.