The global oil market has returned to excess supply as high prices weigh on demand, Middle Eastern flows recover and production outside the Gulf increases despite the unresolved Iran war. JP Morgan estimated that the surplus reached 1.1 million barrels per day in September and widened to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year's 1.3 million bpd average. Goldman Sachs said global inventories did not decline between September and October after falling sharply in the months following the war's outbreak, leaving the market broadly balanced during that period. The International Energy Agency arranged a record release from industrialised nations' strategic reserves after the conflict disrupted Middle Eastern exports. Gulf crude and condensate exports averaged 14 million bpd in October, about 86% of pre-war levels, while refined product exports were 3.1 million bpd, just over half of normal volumes. Brent swaps moved into contango, indicating ample prompt physical supply, although Brent futures from January 2027 remained in backwardation, pointing to tighter later-market conditions.