Polymarket is investigating trades placed shortly before two New York Times/Siena College polls, including an approximately $191,277 bet on Nebraska Republican Senator Pete Ricketts winning re-election on October 31, 2026. The bet was placed about an hour before a poll showed Ricketts leading by six points, lifting his implied odds from about 67% to 79% and generating more than $77,000 for the trader. The same account placed more than $622,000 on the Democratic nominee in Michigan's Senate race and earned more than $180,000 after a subsequent poll, bringing combined profits above $257,000. Vanderbilt researchers said the timing warranted further investigation, while similar large bets appeared on Kalshi. The account was funded by an anonymous crypto wallet, and no use of nonpublic information has been confirmed. The case follows a separate Department of Justice allegation that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke used nonpublic information about a U.S. operation involving then Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to earn more than $400,000 trading on Polymarket.