The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 but upgraded its economic assessment from expanding at a "solid pace" to a "strong pace," reinforcing expectations for another increase. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remained too high and energy and related prices had risen again. The CME FedWatch Tool showed traders pricing in a greater-than-70% chance of a quarter-point December hike, although Warsh declined to prejudge the Dec. 8-9 meeting. Bank of America rates strategist Ralph Axel separately warned in a Nov. 5 research note that a sustained oil-price increase over the next three to six months could push rates significantly higher, particularly if fighting involving Iran and Ukraine continued to pressure supplies. From 2026 through Nov. 4, U.S. two-year swap rates rose a cumulative 196 basis points on days oil prices increased and fell 83 basis points on other days, leaving them 113 basis points higher overall. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with consumer prices up 3.7% year over year in September, the preferred inflation gauge up 3.6%, gasoline prices up 9.1% that month and about 34% over the prior year, and energy prices up 20.4%. Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter. Higher rates were already affecting mortgages, car loans and business borrowing, with Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate recently at 7.18%.