Stablecoin circulation rose only 0.4% to $305 billion in the first nine months, even as measured payment volume increased 45% to $482 billion and payment transactions climbed 71% to 1.04 billion, according to blockchain analytics firm Allium. The average payment size fell to $462 from $544, while September payment volume reached a record $72 billion. Circle reported a similar divergence: USDC circulation was $73.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, unchanged from a year earlier, while on-chain transaction volume rose 49% to $13.9 trillion. Executives and analysts attributed the gap to higher capital turnover, with average monthly stablecoin turnover doubling to about 30 times from 15 times last year. They also said weaker crypto trading demand, including a more than 50% decline in trading volumes, has kept stablecoin supply from expanding. Allium counted $97.9 trillion in total stablecoin on-chain transfers during the period, but actual payment volume represented only about 0.5% of that amount. AI-agent payment transactions doubled from the previous quarter to 68.3 million, although their total volume was just $3.7 million. Standard Chartered has deferred its $2 trillion stablecoin-market forecast to 2030 from 2028, while market participants stress the need to distinguish real payment activity from issuance and broader blockchain transfers.