According to prediction market Kalshi, participants assign a 60% probability that Iran will close the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route for at least seven days before 2027.
Prediction market data from Kalshi shows traders estimate a 60% chance that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz for more than a week before 2027. The Strait of Hormuz serves as one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, making such an event potentially impactful for global energy markets and maritime trade.