IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% on Oil Risk

The Reuters article at https://jp.reuters.com/economy/inflation/AA3TC5XZZFLA7ECZUQO3PPLO64-2026-04-14/ directly supports both parts of the claim. It states the IMF cut its baseline 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from January, and explicitly says that under more severe scenarios involving prolonged Middle East conflict and higher oil prices, global growth could fall much further, including to 2.0% in the severe scenario, which Reuters describes as very close to a global recession. Reuters also notes the IMF warned that if oil prices stayed above $100 through end-2027, the world economy would be pushed to the brink of recession. Additional corroboration attempts via search found matching reports from Reuters, U.S. News, and The Guardian describing the IMF's scenario analysis and warning about deeper downside risks from prolonged conflict and higher oil prices. Although those corroborating pages were not fetch-validated in this run, they are consistent with the validated Reuters evidence.