Polymarket listed a market on whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach a permanent peace deal, with implied odds at 9% by April 26 and 29% by May 31. The contract explicitly excludes temporary arrangements, including a 10-day ceasefire extension announced on April 16, 2026, and states that resolution will rely mainly on official statements from Israel and Hezbollah. The update adds a longer-dated prediction market distinct from earlier short-term ceasefire expectations.