U.S. Recession Odds Fall to 28%, With Rate Cuts Seen Paused Through September 2027

The strongest match to the exact statement is the search-result snippet for "Prediction markets slash 2026 U.S. recession odds to ~28%" at https://seekingalpha.com/news/4575878-prediction-markets-slash-2026-us-recession-odds-to-28, which mirrors both the 28% recession-odds figure and the idea that rate cuts were pushed out to September 2027. However, that page could not be fetched, so the claim is not validated from the source itself. The fetched J.P. Morgan page, "Fed leaves rates unchanged to start 2026: Is a cut coming in March?", supports only the broader notion that the Fed was on pause in early 2026, not the specific timeline through September 2027. The fetched Polymarket page, "US recession in 2025?", confirms that prediction markets publish recession odds, but it does not substantiate the exact end-of-2026 28% figure. Because no fetchable primary source in this run directly confirms the precise numbers and horizon, the claim remains insufficiently evidenced rather than clearly true or false.