Shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated, and a related Polymarket market has moved further against a near-term normalization scenario. The contract on the strait returning to normal by April 30 fell to 30%, down 24% over 24 hours, with trading volume above $15.864 million. The market resolves to “yes” if IMF PortWatch reports a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at or above 60 by May 31, 2026. The move came amid Iran-U.S. tensions and reports of ships turning back in the strait, adding market-based evidence to earlier vessel-tracking reports that traffic remains constrained rather than fully normalized.