Kalshi-led prediction market firms step up Washington lobbying amid U.S. regulatory push

Prediction market firms increased Washington lobbying spending to at least $1.84 million in Q1 2026 as lawmakers debate whether the sector should face CFTC oversight or gambling-style regulation.

Summary

Prediction market firms, led by companies including Kalshi, raised their Washington lobbying spending to at least $1.84 million in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of more than 60% from a year earlier. The latest push includes Kalshi registering two new lobbying firms and hiring former Obama adviser Stephanie Cutter. The spending increase comes as lawmakers have introduced more than 10 bills and debate intensifies over whether prediction markets should be overseen by the CFTC or treated more like gambling products under a different regulatory framework.

Terms & Concepts
  • Prediction market: A marketplace where participants trade contracts tied to future events, with market prices indicating collective expectations about possible outcomes.
  • CFTC: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator that oversees derivatives markets and is central to the debate over prediction market supervision.
  • Lobbying: Organized efforts to influence lawmakers and regulators on legislation, policy decisions, or enforcement approaches.