Odaily Seer reports the trader with more than $1.25 million in profit holds roughly $34,000 in "No" shares on a U.S. invasion of Iran market and a separate $40,000 position tied to the Hormuz Strait blockade.
Odaily Seer reported that a high-win-rate Polymarket trader with cumulative profit above $1.25 million has taken multiple geopolitical "No" positions. One position is about $34,000 in "No" shares priced at 66.8 cents on a market asking whether the U.S. will invade Iran, which resolves to "Yes" only if the United States launches a military attack to establish territorial control before Dec. 31, 2026 ET. A separate position involves about $40,000 in shares at 68.5 cents on a market tied to whether the Hormuz Strait blockade will end by April 30, with resolution based on a public announcement from President Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the military by 11:59 p.m. ET. The Iran-invasion market is distinct from the trader’s earlier more than $480,000 "No" position on a permanent Iran-Israel peace deal market.