The report suggests a small group of skilled traders on Polymarket (crypto-based prediction market) earned consistent profits, while most participants funded those gains through losses and fees.
A study on Polymarket (crypto-based prediction market) found that a small minority of traders—about 3%—were responsible for meaningful gains, while the vast majority lost money overall. The finding points to a familiar dynamic in speculative markets: a limited group of better-positioned or more disciplined participants tends to outperform less experienced traders, with trading losses and platform costs effectively transferring value from the majority to the few. In prediction markets, outcomes are binary and time-sensitive, which can reward traders who process information quickly, price probabilities accurately, and manage risk effectively.