Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari has shifted from earlier expectations of one or two interest-rate cuts in 2026 to a more data-dependent stance as inflation risks remain elevated. According to Jinshi’s summary of his remarks, the Iran war and higher oil prices have made the inflation outlook less clear. Kashkari also warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly, inflation could stay high, meaning rates may need to remain unchanged for longer, while a large oil or energy price shock could force the Federal Reserve to raise rates to defend its 2% inflation target. The remarks reinforce that supply-driven inflation may delay easing and tighten financial conditions for risk assets, including crypto.