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Hyperliquid Launches HIP-4 Outcome Markets on Mainnet With First BTC Contract

Hyperliquid states that HIP-4 Outcome Markets are live on mainnet in a limited release, and Predictefy data showed the first daily BTC contract outpaced Kalshi and Polymarket in comparable trading volume.

BTC
HYPE

Fact Check
The core claim — that Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 Outcome Markets on mainnet in a limited release with a first daily BTC contract — is strongly corroborated by PANews, Odaily, Bitget, Bitcoin.com, and a third-party X post, all dated around 2026-05-02 to 2026-05-03. The limited-release, fully-collateralized, no-leverage structure is consistently described across all sources. However, the specific metrics of $1.953 million in volume and $859,530 in open interest within 18 hours carry meaningful uncertainty: Bitget's article cites a much lower open interest figure ($79,938), which conflicts with the claimed $859,530. The discrepancy may reflect different measurement timestamps (e.g., early vs. 18-hour snapshots), but it cannot be resolved without a direct official Hyperliquid source confirming those exact figures. The third-party X post noting the BTC pair surpassed Polymarket within 6 hours is consistent with strong early volume, lending indirect support to the $1.953M figure. No official @HyperliquidX post was retrievable to confirm the precise numbers. The launch itself is very likely true; the exact volume and OI figures are plausible but not fully verified.
Summary

Hyperliquid has launched HIP-4 Outcome Markets on mainnet in a limited initial release, beginning with a daily recurring binary BTC contract that settles at 06:00 UTC using Hyperliquid’s BTC mark price. According to Hyperliquid, the fully collateralized product is designed for use cases including prediction markets and range options. The first market recorded $1.953 million in trading volume and $859,530 in open interest within 18 hours. Predictefy data further showed that Hyperliquid’s new Bitcoin event contract surpassed Kalshi, Polymarket, and other similar prediction markets in trading volume over the same period, indicating strong early participation in the platform’s event-based derivatives offering.

Terms & Concepts
  • Outcome Markets: Markets where contracts pay out based on the result of a specified event or price condition, often using binary or defined outcomes.
  • Open interest: The total value or number of active derivatives contracts that have not been closed or settled.
  • Mark price: A reference price used by a trading platform to value contracts and determine settlement, helping reduce distortions from short-term price swings.