U.S. Oil Prices Reverse Sharply After Initial 10%+ Drop on U.S.-Iran Peace Talk Reports

Reports of possible U.S.-Iran de-escalation triggered sharp moves across global markets. Oil initially fell more than 10% as traders briefly priced in reduced supply disruption risk tied to the Strait of Hormuz, with one report citing WTI later down 4% at $93.14 and Brent down 3.48% to below $97. Broader markets turned risk-on, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs and the VIX falling 5%, while Bitcoin rebounded above $81,000 after slipping more than 2.3% from a four-month high of $82,751. The oil move then reversed, with U.S. crude reportedly rising 8% within an hour as doubts over an Axios-reported deal increased. Separately, The Kobeissi Letter said a roughly $920 million crude oil short position was opened before the Axios report, implying about $125 million in profit after the initial selloff. The episode highlighted how quickly geopolitical headlines can reprice oil, equities, volatility, and crypto markets.

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