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CME FedWatch Shows Markets Expect Federal Reserve to Hold Rates Through June

CME FedWatch data showed a 96.9% chance the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in June before nonfarm payrolls data, with July still favoring no change over a 25 basis point cut.

Summary

CME FedWatch indicated that markets expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its June meeting with a 96.9% probability, while the odds of a 25 basis point cut were 3.1%. For July, the tracker showed 90.7% odds of no change and a 9.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut. The update came before nonfarm payrolls data, and rate expectations remain closely watched in crypto markets because monetary policy can affect liquidity and risk appetite.

Terms & Concepts
  • CME FedWatch: A market-based tool that estimates the probability of future U.S. Federal Reserve rate decisions using futures pricing.
  • basis point: A unit equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point, commonly used to describe interest-rate changes.
  • Federal Reserve: The central bank of the United States, which sets monetary policy and influences borrowing costs and financial liquidity.